February 2012
2 posts
4 tags
3 tags
Not Everyone Copies Apple
“[Apple is] going to continue to make the best products in the world that delight our customers and make our employees incredibly proud of what they do.”
- Tim Cook in his first email to Apple employees as Apple’s new CEO sent August 25, 2011
“The path [Sony] must take is clear: to drive the growth of our core electronics businesses - primarily digital imaging, smart...
January 2012
1 post
5 tags
Apple 1Q12 Preview: Tale of Two Products
Apple’s 1Q12 earnings report will boil down to two simple data points: iPhone and iPad sales. Guidance will take a back seat, as will margin expectations and management commentary. The market wants confirmation that iPhone and iPad demand is robust, especially after Apple’s disappointing 4Q11.
The magic numbers will be 31 and 13. If Apple sold more than 31 million iPhones and 13 million iPads,...
December 2011
1 post
2 tags
Incompetency
Research in Motion (RIMM) is in a death spiral. Consumers are moving away from the platform in droves, Blackberries have lost the “cool” factor, and RIMM management is unable to control Wall Street expectations. RIMM’s primary problem is incompetent management.
At first, it is difficult to believe that such a large company (at least in the eyes of Canada) could possibly have...
November 2011
2 posts
7 tags
AAPL 1Q12 Estimate
Revenue: $39.4 billion (AAPL guidance: $37 billion/Consensus: $37.9 billion)
I expect iPad and iPhone to represent nearly 70% of Apple’s quarterly revenue. My projected revenue is 38% higher than any previous quarter (closest was $28.6 billion revenue reported in 3Q11).
GM: 41.3% (AAPL guidance: 40%/Consensus: 41.6%)
Apple’s margin in 2011 ranged from 38.5% to 41.7%. A higher iPhone...
8 tags
iPhone Accounted for Nearly 40% of U.S. Smartphone...
Nielsen’s third quarter survey of mobile users seemed to reaffirm what many have been saying; Android continues to grab more smartphone market share, with 43% U.S. share compared to iPhone’s 28%. This morning, I thought a little bit more about Nielsen’s data and something just didn’t seem right.
Since I follow AT&T’s and Verizon’s quarterly earnings, I...
October 2011
3 posts
2 tags
Dissecting an Apple Bear
From my AAPL 4Q11 recap posted last night:
“Earnings misses are not the end of the world. They can be healthy, serving as a foundation for further gains. Misses act as a reset for increasingly lofty expectations. Problems arise though when people look for answers to an earnings miss and are quick to make incorrect assumptions…. Apple bears are getting louder. People are wondering....
8 tags
Final Thoughts on Apple's 4Q11
iPhone. We Still Don’t Know How People Buy Phones.
While everyone has been quick to blame unrealistic expectations for Apple’s 4Q11 “miss”, I think the rare earnings disappointment was partially due to a lack of understanding on how iPhone demand fluctuates and how people buy phones. Apple just became a much harder company to model.
It is incorrect to say that analysts never considered...
3 tags
6 tags
AAPL 4Q11 Earnings Cheat Sheet
AAPL Orchard Estimates (change from previous estimate in italics)
Revenue: $32.6 billion (up $600 million) (guidance: $25.0 billion/consensus: $29.0 billion)
GM: 40.5% (down 40 basis points) (guidance: 38.0%/consensus 39.6%).
EPS: $8.55 (up $0.10) (guidance: $5.50/consensus: $7.16).
Product Unit Sales Estimates
Macs: 4.8 million (up 100,000)
iPad: 11.8 million (up 700,000)
iPod: 7.2 million...
September 2011
3 posts
6 tags
Thoughts on Facebook F8
1) Replacing the World Wide Web. Facebook is focused on replacing large swaths of the web. We got to see Facebook’s plan for sharing media, and I suspect we will hear Facebook’s take on other web functions, such as commerce, search, and utility, in the future.
2) Facebook Hates Privacy. Privacy remains Facebook’s major roadblock as web-replacement initiatives don’t look...
4 tags
Anchoring Bias Impacting Wall Street's View on...
Predicting tech trends beyond 6-12 months is somewhat of a futile endeavor, but two groups of analysts attempt the feat: paid and non-paid. Paid analysts largely encompass sell-side analysts - think along the lines of Goldman Sachs and Piper Jaffray. Non-paid analysts include everyone else and seem to have acquired the “independent” nomenclature. There remains another group -...
August 2011
2 posts
7 tags
Tim Cook. The Architect.
While some have responded to Steve’s resignation as Apple CEO by recalling personal stories involving Steve or Apple, others have focused on how Apple’s culture will handle a different leader. Let’s take a step back and reassess Apple’s current situation.
Current Products
I have extreme confidence that Apple will successfully update its flagship products in the...
7 tags
Inflection Point: HP webOS
HP’s decision to discontinue webOS devices and look for strategic alternatives, including the outright sale of webOS, marks a significant inflection point for the mobile industry. The barriers of entry are now too high for a new mobile OS. For the next 5-10 years, iOS, Android, (and Windows) will shape the future of mobile.
While there are still questions as to what value is left in webOS...
July 2011
5 posts
7 tags
AAPL Orchard's AAPL 4Q11 Estimate
Overall Quarter Metrics
Revenue: $32.0 billion (AAPL guidance: $25 billion/Wall Street consensus: $28.6 billion)
I expect iPad and iPhone to represent nearly 70% of Apple’s quarterly revenue. Remarkable.
GM: 40.9% (AAPL guidance: 38%/Wall Street consensus: 39.3%)
Apple’s margin in 2011 has ranged from 38.5% to 41.7%. Management explained the 41.7% margin experienced in 3Q11...
4 tags
Apple CEO Succession 101
Daring Fireball’s thoughts on Apple’s CEO succession: Click me
My thoughts?
Issues like Apple CEO succession show how little people understand Apple.
This is Apple’s next CEO: Tim Cook
From Apple:
“Cook is responsible for all of the company’s worldwide sales and operations, including end-to-end management of Apple’s supply chain, sales activities, and service and...
3 tags
Great Use for Apple's Cash
City Urban Core Population # of Apple Stores
Shanghai, China 9,495,701 2
Beijing, China 7,296,962 2
Hong Kong, China 6,780,000 0
Tianjin, China 5,066,129 0
Wuhan, China 4,488,892 0
...
11 tags
A New AAPL Era
Apple reported its most recent quarterly earnings this evening. Impressive would be an understatement.
Here are some talking points:
1) Emerging Market Growth. Skewed perspective is making it hard to understand how fast Apple is growing. Many tech analysts are situated in developed countries and economies where the Apple brand is well established, and accordingly have a harder time...
5 tags
Facebook Gets It
While Facebook’s presentation skills were lacking during today’s new features event, I thought there were some interesting tidbits that came out of Zuckerberg’s ramblings.
1) Facebook gets it. Over the past few years, Facebook has unveiled incremental design changes and new features, which by themselves aren’t earth-shaking, but collectively have served to move the...
June 2011
3 posts
4 tags
Will Your Mom Love Google+?
Normal consumers are more likely to try out a new product if they hear their children raving about it, or watch Diane Sawyer report on it during the evening news. Normal consumers are more likely to try out a new product when they feel left out by their reluctance to “join the movement”. Grandparents and parents are joining Facebook because all they hear from their children and grandchildren is...
3 tags
RIMM Observations
After the market close, RIMM reported fiscal 1Q12 earnings. A few things stood out to me.
1) RIMM will begin a headcount reduction. As millions of consumers switch to smart phones from feature phones, RIMM is cutting back. While it is understandable for a company to remove redundancies and waste, the writing is on the wall; RIMM had invested for a much bigger company compared to what it now sees...
6 tags
Snapshots
While surfing the web this morning, I could only laugh at the amount of optimism given to Windows 8. Posts on how Windows 8 will truly revolutionize Microsoft (they said the same thing about Windows 7) were the cherry on top. Commenters rushed in with Microsoft support throwing around such figures as 350 million Windows 7 licenses sold to date or some other funny math that supports their claims....
April 2011
2 posts
7 tags
Want to Beat iPad? Hire a Psychologist
When unveiled in 2010, Apple didn’t know why iPad would be a major hit.* After spending most of the keynote explaining some of iPad’s basic features, such as email, reading books, and surfing the web, Apple left the fundamental question of why iPad would become popular to the marketplace to answer.
One year, and 19.5 million iPads, later, the marketplace has spoken. While users have a variety...
10 tags
iOS App Innovation and iPad 2 Design Lead to Magic
After my attempt to pick up iPad 2 on opening day failed miserably, I had to settle for ordering one online and waiting four weeks. On Wednesday, my wait ended. My initial iPad 2 thoughts focus on two themes; app innovation and iPad design.
After connecting iPad to iTunes (using the iOS umbilical chord) and running through the obligatory setup process, I was ready to take my iPad 2 for a...
March 2011
4 posts
5 tags
Amazon Cloud
Amazon Cloud
1) While I applaud Amazon’s willingness to adapt its business model to the changing technology environment, I am left wondering if cloud music storage is the answer to Amazon’s quest for mobile content relevancy. While digital music was a hot topic a few years ago, services such as Pandora, last.fm, and Rhapsody have been gaining in popularity and serve as a...
7 tags
Amazon Appstore
Amazon Appstore
1) Amazon is a Retailer. Retail DNA. Retail Brains. Retail Ambitions.
2) Amazon’s brand is the most powerful thing it owns. Similar to how people now associate “Google” with Search, “Amazon” holds the power to be associated with Retail - at the expense of the current retail brick and mortar giants.
3) Amazon’s strategy for sustaining...
2 tags
You Want iPad 2?
1) You head to your local Apple store.
2) Although you see a queue line outside, you walk in and ask an Apple store employee if they have any iPad 2s? Answer is no.
3) After walking around aimlessly for 10 minutes, you head outside and get in-line. You are #14.
4) After talking with #4, #8, and #12, you realize that this store hasn’t received any iPad 2 shipments for two days.
5)...
9 tags
iPad's Actual Market Share
Ever since Steve Jobs unveiled the iPad 2, people have busy trying to compare his statements to the truth, especially this one:
“Many have said (iPad) is the most successful consumer product ever launched. Over 90% market share and our competitors were flummoxed.”
Where was Steve getting this 90% market share data point? Strategy Analytics showed iPad’s market share at 75% in...
February 2011
2 posts
4 tags
Do You Really Understand Apple?
Person who doesn’t get Apple:
“Apple is crazy. How can they tell music streaming apps like Rhapsody that 30% of their revenue belongs to Apple? It is insane. Apple is making the biggest mistake in 10 years. All of these apps will leave the iOS ecosystem. If I am on an airplane and I see someone with an Android tablet and they are enjoying Rhapsody and I don’t have it on my...
4 tags
HP Needs to Apologize for the webOS Event
The HP webOS event was a complete disaster leaving me questioning HP’s integrity. Am I shocked that product release dates and pricing wasn’t announced? No. However, I thought HP would at least make it look like they were interested in making webOS into something great.
1) The actual unveiling presentation was very difficult to watch demonstrating no clear understanding of who...
January 2011
4 posts
8 tags
Will HP webOS Get Knocked Out Before Entering the...
HP will unveil its revamped webOS platform on February 9th and in the process reveal what has come from its Palm acquisition. There is also an evening event planned for that same day for developers interested in the webOS platform.
HP faces many challenges as it jumps with both feet, and webOS, into the mobile space. I give the company credit for trying. There is something about attempting...
2 tags
"iPhone Impact on Verizon" For Dummies
Verizon with iPhone
Verizon with no iPhone
There will be a pop quiz next Wednesday. So take notes!
10 tags
Big M&A Not in Apple's DNA
What will Apple do with its $50 billon cash hoard, which is growing nearly $20 billion annually? On January 6, a Bloomberg article-stating that Apple was shopping around for a new CFO-led some to think that Apple is interested in picking up its M&A pace. In recent months, rumored Apple targets have included Disney ($75 billion), Sony ($40 billion), Netflix ($10 billion), and Twitter ($5...
7 tags
December 2010
7 posts
8 tags
Various Holiday Crowds
Apple
Microsoft
Verizon
Sprint
I couldn’t make it to a Best Buy, but I’m sure that’s where everyone was buying Windows and Android products for the holidays.
6 tags
My Ping
Apple - this is what I want you to do with Ping:
1) Don’t make Ping into another traditional social network. I already use Facebook. I don’t need another one.
2) Make Ping all about content discovery. I am still having an awful time finding new music. Yes, I know you have genius playlists, but a lot of times it is just so impersonal and cold. I just want to “follow” my...
12 tags
iPhone Can Still Beat Android in Smartphone...
On smartphone battlefields where iPhone hasn’t yet arrived, Android is winning the battle.
It is premature to declare Android the eventual winner in the smartphone market share race, even with Google now activating 300,000 Android units/day. Steve Jobs noted on Apple’s recent quarterly earnings call that there is “no solid data” on Android phone shipments. For this...
12 tags
Music Wars: Facebook vs. Twitter vs. Myspace vs....
Curious as to how Ping adoption rates were doing, I compared several popular music artists on Facebook, Twitter, Myspace, and Ping as of 10:45 am December 11, 2010. I also looked at the number of original updates posted on Friday (December 10) by each music artist.
Justin Bieber
Facebook: 16,672,233 fans (original updates: 7)
Twitter: 6,295,146 (updates: 17) (38% of FB fans)
Myspace:...
5 tags
Making Big Bets and Controlling Risk - How Apple...
I get to hang out with some of the most talented, committed people around, and together we get to play in this sandbox and build these cool products. Apple is an incredibly collaborative company. You know how many committees we have at Apple? Zero. We’re structured like a start-up. We’re the biggest start-up on the planet. And we all meet once a week to discuss our business. - Steve...
4 tags
5 tags
